Conservative politicians are clear that they are facing the tricky if not impossible task of rebuilding their party around a specific set of ideas, especially now that they’re challenged by Reform.

During my last trip to London, a senior member of the Tories in house of Lords told me quite straightforwardly that « we should do a mea culpa for what we did wrong during our fourteen years in power. »

Some politicians have started doing so, starting with Rishi Sunak, who apologized for not delivering what the voters expected while he was PM, during his last speech before he left 10 Downing Street:

« We should make a mea culpa for much of what we did during our period in power, as much of it was fundamentally not conservative in nature. But it must be coupled with setting out a new track of more conservative principles too. Otherwise, it just looks like self-flagellation. »

Rishi Sunak’s apology was of course very broad. Now, for some Tories, time has come to reconsider what the party precisely got wrong.

One source in the Tory party comments: « There’s a lack of courage to implement the policies which will allow our economy to grow again, especially the reduction of the size of our post WW2 state. »

« To regain the voters’ trust, we must make clear choices on a whole set of policies, such as pulling out of the ECHR or reversing net zero policies. »

Kemi Badenoch’s main challenge today is to gather her party around ideas that everybody will agree on. Reducing legal migration and stopping illegal migration, however important these issues are for the British people, aren’t seen as a priority by all members of the Conservative Party such as NextGen Tories. 

A member of this center-right conservative group I spoke to last week hardly mentioned immigration when I asked him about the policies, he thought the Tories should support:

« There is no doubt that we need significant reform to housing policy, and we need to better support people in building their own families: lowering the cost of childcare, longer maternity and paternity leave, things that the French have already done for instance. »

« On immigration, we’ve got to reach a sensible position that reduces numbers significantly, while not falling into rhetoric that puts younger voters off. Reform will always be more radical, and Labour will always be weaker — we must define our own space.

The main problem arrives when the party starts thinking, as in 2024, that because polls are bad, it has to protect the existing vote share — meaning voters over 60 — which is not a sustainable position. »

The main challenge for the Tories is how to attract young voters under 35, only 8% to 9% of whom voted Conservative in July 2024.

Hard times to come

The challenge for Kemi Badenoch is considerable: she must set out clear policies and at the same time differentiate herself from Nigel Farage and Reform UK, which attracts more and more young voters and potential future Conservative MPs. 

« We have plenty of time to rebuild, » concluded a source in the Tory party.

Time may actually be an issue: a swift rebuild appears necessary for the Conservatives to avoid a total wipe out at the next local elections. 

The Welsh and Scottish elections could see Reform UK making historical figures in both nations. 

In fact, Reform UK could become the number one party in the Senned if the polls are right. 

Reform UK reports at the moment 7.800 members in Wales, much more than the 5.000 reported by the Conservative Party in Wales. 

Reform’s success in these two elections to come will give the party and its leader an increased credibility which they are still lacking now with their five MPs.

If the results of these two elections are too bad for the Conservatives — and the prospects aren’t good — there might be a wider issue about the trust the party has in Kemi Badenoch.

A new crisis in the Tory party may not be that as far as we think!